Is now a good time to buy in Houston?

It is the question I hear most, usually with a little anxiety behind it: should we buy now, or wait? The honest answer is that the market never hands out perfect timing, but it does change who holds the leverage. Right now, in most of Houston, that leverage has shifted toward buyers more than at any point since before the pandemic. Here is what I am seeing in my own transactions, what the broader data suggests, and how I would think about the decision if I were in your position.

Where the market stands

The short version is that Houston has moved from a frantic seller's market to something much closer to balanced, and in some segments it leans toward buyers. Three forces are doing most of the work: rates, inventory and prices that have stopped climbing.

Rates have eased, but they are not going back to 3 percent

Thirty-year mortgage rates peaked near 8 percent in the fall of 2023. They have since eased, spending much of the period since in the 6 percent range, which has brought payments down meaningfully for a given price. They remain well above the 3 percent loans of 2020 and 2021, and I do not advise anyone to plan around a return to those levels. The practical takeaway is that waiting for a dramatic rate drop is a bet, not a plan. If rates fall further after you buy, refinancing is an option. If prices rise while you wait, there is no equivalent tool to undo that.

Inventory is up materially

In 2021 and 2022, the Houston area had less than two months of supply, which meant a well-priced home could sell in a weekend with multiple offers and waived contingencies. Inventory has rebuilt steadily since, and the region now carries roughly four or more months of supply, more than many large metros. That number varies sharply by neighborhood and price point. Well-located homes in desirable school zones, priced correctly, can still move quickly. Townhomes, homes that need significant work and higher-priced new construction tend to sit longer, and their sellers are more open to negotiation.

Prices are roughly flat in many close-in segments

Across much of the inner Loop and the neighborhoods I work in most, from Garden Oaks and Oak Forest to the Heights and Timbergrove, prices have been roughly flat to slightly down from their 2022 peaks once you account for concessions. The headline median can hide that, because it moves with the mix of homes that happen to sell in a given month. A better read is price per square foot for comparable homes on comparable lots, adjusted for what sellers are giving back at the closing table.

Why buyers have leverage again

More inventory and fewer bidding wars mean buyers can negotiate on terms that were off the table three years ago. In my recent transactions, I am regularly seeing:

• Seller contributions toward closing costs or a rate buydown, especially on homes that have been on the market more than 30 days
• Meaningful repair negotiations after the option period inspection, rather than as-is offers
• Longer option periods and normal financing contingencies accepted without pushback
• Price reductions before the first offer on homes that launched too high
• Builder incentives on new construction, often a rate buydown or closing cost credit tied to the builder's preferred lender

None of that means every seller will deal. Homes that are priced correctly and presented well still draw strong offers, and the best house on a good street can still get competition. The leverage is real, but it belongs to buyers who are prepared, fully pre-approved and able to move decisively when the right house appears.

The costs that are rising

Purchase price and interest rate are only part of the monthly payment in Houston. Two other line items deserve attention before you decide.

Insurance

Homeowners insurance premiums in Texas have risen sharply since 2022, driven by storm losses, reinsurance costs and higher rebuilding costs. Quotes vary widely by roof age, construction type, claims history and location. Get a real quote during your option period, not a ballpark from a website. If the home is in or near a mapped floodplain, price flood insurance separately, even if your lender does not require it.

Property taxes

Texas has no state income tax, and property taxes do much of that work instead. Combined rates inside Houston city limits commonly land around 2 percent of appraised value, and they can run higher in suburban areas with Municipal Utility District taxes. The state has expanded the school homestead exemption in recent years, and once you qualify, the homestead cap limits annual increases in your taxable value to 10 percent. Even so, budget from the actual tax rate for the specific address, not from the seller's bill.

New construction: read the incentive carefully

Builders across the region, especially in the suburbs, have leaned on incentives to keep sales moving. A rate buydown from a builder can be worth more than an equivalent price cut, because it lowers your payment for years. It can also be worth less, if it requires using the builder's lender at a higher base rate or if the price itself has been padded to fund it. Ask for the incentive in writing, compare it against a straight price reduction and have your own lender quote the same loan. Inside the Loop, new construction in neighborhoods like Oak Forest and Timbergrove competes directly with renovated originals, which gives buyers room to negotiate on both.

So, is now a good time?

For buyers with stable income, a realistic budget and a time horizon of several years, I think the current Houston market offers something we have not had in a while: choice and leverage at the same time. You can inspect without pressure, negotiate repairs, ask for help with closing costs and still buy in a neighborhood you love. The risk of waiting is that a sustained rate decline brings buyers back in force, and the leverage shifts again.

For sellers, this market rewards preparation. The homes I have sold quickly over the past year were priced to the real comps from day one, presented with professional media and launched with a clear story. Homes that tested the market high tended to sit, take reductions and then sell for less than they would have at the right price.

If you are weighing a move, I am glad to walk through the numbers for your specific neighborhood and price range. The negotiation starts before the first offer, and so does a good decision.